Case Studies and Model Status

The following is a list of case studies chosen based on a comparison of Oklahoma Mesonet 1.5-m temperature and mixing ratio with daily 9-, 24-, and 33-hour MM5 2-m temperature and mixing ratio forecasts during 2004. The model status for each case and type of model run is also given, along with the availability of plotted comparisons for selected variables. Tabulated below is the status of additional MM5 runs after tuning the constant multiplier in front of the shortwave radiation parameter that approximates Rayleigh and aerosol scattering (CXSCA). The default is 1.0. See Solar Radiation Tuning for details. The bottom table indicates the status of model runs using non-calibrated vegetation fraction data derived from satellite.


KEY
G - Good forecast
B - Bad forecast
Each character in three-letter codes corresponds to
the 9-, 24- and 33-hour forecast initialized at 12Z on the date indicated.

M - Observed mesoscale circulations
S - Severe weather event
C - Cloudless day

Red indicates a case study worthy of further investigation.
Purple indicates that results for the same model run are listed twice in different categories.


DateCode Model Results AvailablePlot
ControlSatellite SoilSatsoil Fveg only
13 April 2004GBGyes yesyes yes–yes
24 April 2004GGGyes yesyes yes–yes
1 May 2004GBGyes yesyes yes–yes
3 May 2004 GGG yes yes yes yes – yes
17 May 2004 BBByes yesyes yesyes yes
22 May 2004GGGyes yesyes yes–yes
28 May 2004Syes yesyes yes–yes
29 May 2004Syes yesyes yes–yes
17 June 2004 BBByes yesyes yes–yes
18 June 2004BGByes yesyes yes–yes
6 July 2004 BBByes yesyes yes–yes
20 July 2004 GGG yes yes yes yes yes yes
30 July 2004Myes yesyes yes–yes
1 August 2004 M yes yes yes yes – yes
19 August 2004BGByes yesyes yes–yes
3 September 2004 BBB yes yes yes yes yes yes
2 April 2005 Cyes –– –––


Empirical Surface Energy Fluxes
DateCXSCA/
RADFRQ		 Model Results Available Plot
SH Flux Bal (B) (maxnes=4) GH Flux Bal SH & GH Flux Bal Non-balanced (NB) (maxnes=3) Orig LH at night (BR) (bal) Orig LH at night (R) (unbal)
3 May 2004 1.400 / 5 yes – – yes (24) yes (24) yes yes
20 July 2004 1.700 / 5 yes – – yes (24) yes (24) yes yes
1 August 2004 1.600 / 5 yes – – yes (24) yes (24) yes yes
3 September 2004 1.400 / 5 yes (24) – – yes (24) yes (24) yes yes


Empirical Surface Energy Fluxes with Adjusted Soil Heat Capacity
DateCXSCA/
RADFRQ		 Model Results Available Plot
Orig LH at night (R) (unbal)
Decreased by 10% * * * * *
3 May 2004 1.400 / 5 – – – – – – –
20 July 2004 1.700 / 5 – – – – – – –
1 August 2004 1.600 / 5 yes – – – – – yes
3 September 2004 1.400 / 5 – – – – – – –


Tuned Solar Radiation
DateCXSCA/
RADFRQ		 Model Results Available Plot
Control Satellite Soil Satsoil Fveg only
3 May 2004 1.400 / 5 yes yes yes yes yes yes
17 May 2004 1.500 / 30yes – yes – – –
19 July 2004 1.700 / 5 yes – yes – – –
20 July 2004 1.500 / 30 yes yes yes yes yes –
20 July 2004 1.700 / 5 yes yes yes yes yes yes
21 July 2004 1.700 / 5 yes – yes – – –
1 August 2004 1.600 / 5 yes yes yes yes yes yes
3 September 2004 1.400 / 5 yes yes yes yes yes yes


Tuned Solar Radiation Soil Moisture Sensitivity Tests
DateCXSCA/
RADFRQ		 Delta-T Ref Adj Model Results Available Plot
SoilSatsoil
19 July 2004 1.700 / 5 0.0 yes – –
20 July 2004 1.700 / 5 -0.5 yes yes –
20 July 2004 1.700 / 5 +0.5 yes yes –
21 July 2004 1.700 / 5 0.0 yes – –
21 July 2004 1.700 / 5 -0.5 yes – –
21 July 2004 1.700 / 5 +0.5 yes – –
1 August 2004 1.600 / 5 -0.5 yes – –
1 August 2004 1.600 / 5 +0.5 yes – –


DateCXSCA Model Results Available
Non-calibrated
Satellite		 Non-calibrated
Satsoil		 Non-calibrated
Fveg only
17 May 20041.000 yesyesyes
28 May 20041.000 yes yes–
17 June 20041.000 yes yes–
6 July 20041.000 yesyes–
20 July 20041.000 yesyes–
1 August 20041.000 yes––
3 September 20041.000 yesyes–
17 May 20041.500 yesyesyes
20 July 20041.500 yesyesyes


Improved Land-Surface Data Home
Revised: 21 September 2006