.tmp)
Note: The
expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch
is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for
Watch
Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 640 AM UNTIL
200 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE
TEXAS TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 820...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF STALLED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FRONT OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN AS SURFACE
HEATING OCCURS AND THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN. GIVEN RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES UNTIL LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS LATER IN THE DAY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...CORFIDI
.tmp)
Note: The
Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch
area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded
areas. SAW1
WW 821 TORNADO TX 101140Z - 101900Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N UTS/HUNTSVILLE TX/ - 15ESE BAZ/NEW BRAUNFELS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /44WNW LFK - 34E SAT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 31529444 29629680 29629880 31529648
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 821 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 821
VALID 101455Z - 101540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW AUS
TO 15 SE AUS TO 45 SE CRS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
..SPC..10/10/06
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 821
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-015-021-041-051-055-089-091-149-185-209-225-287-289-313-
339-373-407-455-471-473-477-101540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
COLORADO COMAL FAYETTE
GRIMES HAYS HOUSTON
LEE LEON MADISON
MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 821
VALID 101400Z - 101540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..10/10/06
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 821
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-015-021-041-051-055-089-091-149-161-185-209-225-287-289-
293-313-331-339-373-395-407-455-471-473-477-101540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
COLORADO COMAL FAYETTE
FREESTONE GRIMES HAYS
HOUSTON LEE LEON
LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM
MONTGOMERY POLK ROBERTSON
SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER
WALLER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note: Click
for Complete
Product Text. Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod
(30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5)
tornadoes
|
Low
(10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low
(10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65
knots
|
Low
(<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low
(10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low
(<5%)
|
Combined
Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind
events
|
Mod
(50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside
the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the
issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability
values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes),
less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from
30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High
values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
