MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 821...
   
   VALID 101431Z - 101630Z
   
   14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DOUBLE STRUCTURE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN
   TX.  INITIAL SURGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WAS SITUATED FROM VCNTY
   HOUSTON NWWD INTO THE KCLL AREA.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER QUALITY MARITIME
   MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING NWD INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE KSAT
   REGION.
   
   LINEAR MCS THAT EVOLVED ACROSS CNTRL TX WEAKENED WEST OF THE I-35
   CORRIDOR...BUT REMAINS STRONG FROM THE KAUS/KBAZ REGION NEWD TOWARD
   KCLL.  SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BAND
   OF TSTMS WAS RESULTING IN MORE DISCRETE TSTMS VCNTY LOCKHART AND LA
   GRANGE. 
   
   STRONGER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTS AND TRACK
   ESEWD INTO SERN TX THROUGH THE MORNING.  THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
   THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS VEERED OVER SCNTRL TX...THE LDB
   PROFILER SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SRH FOR AN EWD MOVING STORM WAS AROUND
   150-175 M2/S2. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE WITH THE
   STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY CROSS
   THE WARM FRONTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   29779882 30529818 32139589 31569454 30559426 29489522
   29079673